Atmospheric Rivers model evaluation, their tracking, change, and impacts in a changing climate and under solar geoengineering

• He completed his undergraduate studies at the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Ghana and subsequently earned both my Master’s and PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from Indiana University. His research expertise centers on extreme weather and climate hazards, with a focus on mesoscale to synoptic-scale phenomena such as Atmospheric Rivers, Mesoscale Convective Systems, Heat Lows, Tropical Cyclones, and tropical–extratropical wave interactions. Currently, Dr. Dr. Quagraine is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Texas A&M University, where he uses state-of-the-art climate and weather models to evaluate tropical cyclone behavior in the present climate and under future warming scenarios. His work also integrates cutting-edge AI/ML weather modeling tools to improve the detection, prediction, and characterization of high-impact weather extremes. He is broadly committed to advancing scientific understanding of extreme events and supporting climate resilience through improved forecasting and risk assessment.

Abstract: 

• Atmospheric rivers (ARs) strongly influence regional hydroclimate through extreme precipitation, flooding, water supply, and, more recently, heatwaves and dust transport. Research has shown that current climate models capture the broad spatial patterns and seasonality of ARs but systematically underestimate high-intensity events and misplace landfall locations by up to several degrees. Tracking across historical and future scenarios reveals a robust intensification of ARs, characterized by stronger moisture transport, higher frequency of extreme categories, and poleward-shifted landfalls in a warming climate. Under stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering, global cooling partially offsets AR intensification but does not restore historical behavior: ARs remain stronger than preindustrial levels, with regional patterns that differ from both unmitigated warming and historical conditions. Hydrological impacts, including flood risk and rainfall extremes, could remain elevated even under SAI. These findings demonstrate that AR-related hazards are highly sensitive to climate forcing and that geoengineering modifies rather than fully reverses AR changes, with critical implications for water management and adaptation planning.